Yearly Archives: 2011

2011 – another blogging year

Another blogging year is almost over and it’s time to recap some of the ups and downs of 2011. Did I reach my goals? What drove traffic to husdal.com? What were the most popular posts? What can I do to improve in 2012? These are just some of the timely questions every blogger should ask before starting a new year of blogging. As to how husdal.com fared in 2011 there are some expected developments and also some unexpected surprises. All in all, I think I did pretty well, compared to 2010.

Did I reach my traffic goals?

It is very ambitious, I know, but when I started 2011 I was aiming at doubling my 2010 traffic, which meant going from 100,000 visitors to 200,000 visitors…well, I missed that one. I only increased by 60%, not 100%. Nonethless, 160,000 visitors in one year are some 13,000 visitors per month, and I’m quite happy with that.

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What I find noteworthy is that the average visitor spends more than 4 minutes on my website; that’s good. Now, for 2012, considering my coming career change and less time for blogging, I’ll adjust my goal to 200,000 visitors. That should be a fairly reachable goal.

What drives traffic to husdal.com?

Looking at what sites/domains that bring in the most traffic, a marked change has taken place in 2011, compared to 2010:

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In 2010, en.wikipedia.org (#1 in 2011) wasn’t even on the list, linkedin.com was #8 (#2 IN 2011), researchblogging.org was #2 (#4 in 2011) and google.com was #3 (#5 in 2011). The reason for Wikipedia’s jump in ranking is that some articles list my posts as external reference, e.g. this post on the Northern Sea Route is referenced in Wikipedia’s article on the Northern Sea Route. The increase in linkedin.com as a referrer I put down to that not only have I linked up with a lot of people using Linkedin, I have also been active in Linkedin Groups and Linkedin Answers. The last to referrers are a result of my cooperation with Incapsula, the state-of-the-art security and performance provider for websites, and which has protected my blog from a number of attacks in 2011.

 What were the most popular posts in 2011?

2011, as did 2010, confirmed that sometimes posts may take a while before they gain an audience, as the most read posts in 2011 may be posts that I wrote quite some time ago, and not at all in 2011:

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If I disregard my home page as the most read “post”, the real #1 in 2011 was #3 in 2010 and was written in 2009: Supply chain risk management in six steps is a straightforward and reasy to read and understand post about SCRM; it is essentially supply chain risk made easy, and that is probably why it is so popular. Interestingly, my 2009 post on the latest trends in SCM still holds up as #2 (#2 in 2010), presumably because people are using that as a search phrase.  Surprisingly, #3 and #5 on the list are new posts from 2011, and a result of securing my blog with Incapasula, and the promotional posts and comments I made about it. What was #1 in 2010 is now #4 in 2011, thankfully, because the post is only popular among those searching for an image on cost-benefit analysis, and has nothing supply chain risk about it.

What can I do  to improve in 2012?

As already mentioned, there will be a career change in 2012, and consequently there will a change of focus of this blog. It remains to be seen whether this will be an improvement or not, but it will certainly – I hope so – widen the audience of this blog, and will inspire me to write better, I think. As to other things I could improve, I ask you as my readers to come up with suggestions, so please leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Less posts – more visitors

In summary, my writing was a lot less prolific in 2011 than in 2010, only 87 posts, compared to 121 posts in 2010, not to mention 164 posts in 2009. I think it truly goes to show that less is more and that churning out post after post is not the key to success in blogging. I did not reach my goals, but I am satisfied the way things turned out after all. Bearing in mind that I posted almost nothing  during the entire months of November and December I am quite content that I did not suffer a greater loss of visitors.

2012 – here I come

To all my followers and fellow bloggers, Happy New Year 2012!

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Estimation of disruption risk

How to estimate the disruption risk exposure in a supply chain? That is the question asked by Ulf Paulsson, Carl-Henric Nilsson and Sten Wandel in their paper titled Estimation of disruption risk exposure, building on what Paulsson wrote in his PhD on the same subject. Here they develop a model that links disruption risk to disruption source, covers all flow-related disruption risks in the total supply chain from natural resources to delivered final product, seen from the angle of an individual focal unit in the supply chain. The model classifies the risk exposure into 15 different risk exposure boxes, of which 12 have ‘expected result impact’ and three have ‘known result impact’, providing what they call a total negative result impact.

How to handle a supply chain disruption?

one of the ideas from this article that I like very much are the different alternatives for handling a supply chain, basically only two: to act or not to act, that is the question.

These two options start from the very first signs of disruption: To act: close down the supply chain, or not to act: keep the supply chain running.

The same goes for pre-event measures, or mitigative measures as I like to call them. Here, to act means trying to prevent disruptions from happening, while not to act mens either to accept the disruption and its consequences despite possible actions that could be taken, or to accept the disruption because it can neither be influenced as to probability nor as to consequence.

Similarly, when it comes to post-event measures, or contingent measures as I would call them, there is again the option of acting or handling internally or not acting or passing on the event and it s consequences.

Going with the flow

Another interesting though from this paper is the supply chain flow, and where the purpose of handling supply chain disruptions is to regain a stable flow in both incoming, outgoing and internal flows.

Furthermore,  regaining a stable flow after a supply chain disruption also implies short-term stability or market patience while the disruption is handled and long-term stability or market confidence after an event has been handled.

Total expected result impact

Combining the disruption handling options, the types of flows and the chain of events creates twelve possible combinations of impacts which must be added in order to obtain the total expected result impact:

This splits the disruption impacts into individual units while at the same time keeping the full picture intact.

Conclusion

What I like about the model developed in this paper is that addresses the entire supply chain from supplier until end customer. It is a holistic and generic model for estimating disruption risks in the supply chain flow in a systematic and structured manner. The model presents, as far as I can see, the most complete estimation of disruption risks, it includes incoming and outgoing flows and it separates between mitigative and contingent handling of disruptions, thus balanacing proactive and reactive risk management.

Reference

Paulsson, U., Nilsson, C., & Wandel, S. (2011). Estimation of disruption risk exposure in supply chains International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2 (1) DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2011.040011

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Heading in a new direction

For those of you who follow my blog on a regular basis, there hasn’t been a post for quite a while. That is because I am completely bogged down in work, and unfortunately it may be a while before there even is a next post. More importantly, however, is that I will be changing jobs and relocating in early 2012. I will be leaving academia and research and continue the governmental and administrative career I left 6 years ago. In February 2012 I will start working with Southern Region office of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (Statens vegvesen Region sør), located in Arendal in Southern Norway.

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Supply Chain Security

Today’s supply chains circle the globe and form the backbone of world trade and a are major factor in the global economy, linking countries far from us as if they were our neighbors. The world is becoming smaller, no doubt. But this increasingly tighter connected world is also increasingly dangerous, and it thus imperative to secure supply chains against any form of man-made and natural disruption. So say PwC in the lastest volume of their Transportation & Logistics 2030 series: Securing the supply chain. Based on a survey of a global group of experts using the RealTime Delphi method, this well-founded report highlights and explores what elements of supply chain security they believe will be most critical in the future.

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SCRM Research Gaps

Supply Chain Risk Management is a area that has seen a significant growth in recent years. However, there is diverse perception of research in supply chain risk because these researchers have approached this area from different domains. A recent article on Researchers’ Perspectives on Supply Chain Risk Management, written by Manmohan S Sodhi, Byung-Gak Son and Christopher S Tang, presents a study of this diversity from the perspectives of operations and supply chain management scholars. In their study they identify three gaps: a definition gap, a process gap and a methodology gap, and they suggest how these gaps can be closed.

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Website security as it should be

Being the editor of a blog that deals heavily with risk management and business continuity, let alone blog continuity, it is only natural that I also care about the security and continuity of my blog. That is why a couple of months ago I decided to protect my website with Incapsula, While I have been quite happy with Incapsula so far, they have just released a major upgrade, and it is now much easier to use, having richer reporting details and extremely fine-tunable security options, making it very easy to pinpoint and select which traffic to allow and which to reject.

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Supply Chain Continuity

Many business owners will have come across the term business continuity, and many supply chain owners will have come across the term supply chain risk management. However, the term supply chain continuity is still a rather unexplored topic, gathering mere 45000 search results on Google, while business continuity has no less than 10 million results. But isn’t that what supply chain risk management is all about, namely supply chain continuity? Well, here’s a book that most certainly thinks so: A Supply Chain Management Guide to Business Continuity by Betty A Kildow, showing how a well-functioning supply chain is the key to a well-functioning business.
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Supply Chain Risk 2011

What is supply chain risk? What are typical supply chain risks? This is the 2011 version of my annual lecture on Supply Chain Risk for the MSc in Supply Chain Management and Industrial Logistics at Molde University College, Norway, held today, and this is the fourth consecutive year that I am giving this lecture. The lecture is meant to highlight some of the current literature on supply chain risk and to suggest further reading materials. It is a selection- quite an extensive selection, actually – of the more than 400 articles, books and book chapters I have piled up in my office shelves, and in a way this lecture is a broad literature review of anything connected to supply chain risk. While the main topics are the same, there are always new things I include, so even if you have seen the 2008 lecture and the 2009 lecture and the 2010 lecture on supply chain risk, this year’s is a bit different…again.

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Retail Operations in China

In a previous post on the Retail SCM Summit 2011 I mentioned that China as a rising economic powerhouse and on its way to become the world’s second largest consumer market after the United States. With a large population of fashion and brand conscious consumers increasing their spending as their incomes rise, the consumer retail market in China is expected to continue to grow, opening up huge opportunities for European and US retail stores that may be considering expanding into the Chinese market. While the upside is obvious, the pitfalls and hurdles are not, and that is the topic of  Retail Operations in China: Capturing the Opportunity and Managing the Risk, a webinar hosted by US-based law firm Mintz Levin and scheduled for September 19 at 1pm EST.

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Blog Review: Gold or Dust?

Striking gold in the blogosphere. Or was is just dust? This month’s blog is aptly titled “Gold or Dust” and is based on a true story, namely the academic journey of Charlie Newnham, who is studying for her MSc in Resilience at the University of Cranfield, UK. I wasn’t even aware that such a program existed and the blog chronicles her (almost daily) thoughts, her ideas and struggles as she comes to grip with what to write in her thesis topic, starting in December 2010, and now nearing completion. Is it dust? No, it’s pure gold. At least by my standards.
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CNN: The Gateway

Hosted by news anchor Becky Anderson, the CNN Gateway is a series that goes behind the scenes of the world’s major transport hubs, revealing the logistics that keep goods and people moving. We may not always give it much thought, but suply chains are all around us, and logistics is what makes the world tick. Our global world would not be possible without these hubs, the technology they emply and the people who work there. Even if you consider yourself fairly knowledgable in logistics and supply chain management, I bet there are still new things to learn from watching this series, and this post will present some of the highlights.

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What is risk?

What is risk, and how can it be expressed? Should risk be defined through probabilities or should risk be defined through uncertainties? That is what Eyvind Aven and Terje Aven are attempting to explain in their paper On how to understand and express enterprise risk. In the paper, they claim that different international standards, such as the AS/NZS 3460 Risk Management Standard, the COSO ERM framework and the ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard do not provide adequate guidance on these issues and lack the necessary precision. Thus, they establish their own framework, where risk has two main components, namely 1) the impact of events and consequences (outcomes), and  2) the associated uncertainties (probabilities).
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MBA – Major Bad Ass?

Are business schools bad for business? I recently came across a very interesting article by the late Sumatra Ghoshal, who blamed business schools for the demise in management practices because they have become obsessed with teaching maximizing shareholder value at the expense of everything else.  In Bad Management Theories are Destroying Good Management Practices he claims that business schools have gone astray because they teach ideology more than they teach theory, let alone good management practices. Are business schools really that bad?

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Theory versus Practice

What happens when theory meets practice? Theory fails and practice wins? In academia, more often than not, developing new groundbreaking theories is what is worth pursuing, because it is academically challenging, let alone meriting, despite these theories being practically irrelevant or not offering real(business)-life implications. Nowhere is the outcome of this research-versus-practice debate more important than in the supply chain realm. So say Stanley E Fawcett and Matthew A Waller in Making Sense Out of Chaos: Why Theory is Relevant to Supply Chain Research, an editorial in the Journal of Business Logistics, where they share their vision on how theory’s explanatory power should lead to better decision making, and not be seen as something apart from practice.

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The ISCRiM Newsletter

Are you looking for the latest in supply chain risk research? Usually, newsletters from the International Supply Chain Risk Management Network (ISCRiM) are the place to find it, and finally, here’s the first and hopefully not the only newsletter for 2011, like in 2010, when there was only one. The ISCRiM Newsletter is filled to the brim with exciting news about journal articles, books and book chapters published by the ISCRiM members, conference papers, conferences to be held that have supply chain risk in their program, research reports and dissertations/theses that deal with supply chain risk, Internet links and useful websites that a researcher in supply chain risk ought to be aware of. It’s a who’s who and what’s what in supply chain risk management. Continue reading

SC Design and Management

More than 500-page heavy and laden with real-life examples and thoroughly calculated details, Designing and Managing the Supply Chain by David Simchi-Levi, Philip M Kaminsky and Edith Simchi-Levi this an excellent textbook that will teach you much more than just supply chain design and management. This book takes on a unique approach, and teaches you how the supply chain is an integrated part of any business, not something added to it to make the business work. The supply chain is the business; if it is not properly designed and managed, there is no business. Thus, this book is more than just about supply chain management, it is about business management in a wider sense. Unfortunately though, supply chain risk does not feature very prominently in this book.

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Blog Review: RiskCzar

How time flies. Another month has passed and it’s time for another blog review. This month it’s RISKCZAR’s BLOG by Trevor Levine, a blog that is based on his almost 20 years of experience in financial, operational and enterprise risk management (ERM), and process improvement. In other words,  a heavy-weight risk champion, but this is not a heavy-weight blog. It is a fun blog to read, for laughing more than learning, or rather “learning through laughing”. It is a blog that will make you smile. It is a blog that will make you realize that risk doesn’t have to be serious, because treating it too serious may make you end up in one of Trevor’s blog posts.

Trevor Levine

When presenting himself, Trevor writes this on his About page:

I am not a quant, an academic or an accountant but just a guy who likes writing about risk management in a way that anyone would understand. You will not see any Greek letters or equations in my posts because that side of risk management doesn’t interest me too much nor is that the audience I am trying to reach. I prefer the lighter side – while goofing on the misfortunes of those who failed to practice proactive risk management – just to make the point and make you laugh.

And indeed, that is exactly what his blog is about.

Blog Highlights

Here are some samples of what you can find on riskczar.com:

Recently he seems to be struck by “Harry Potter”-fever, because he has no less than four posts on Voldemort, including Voldemort as Risk Manager of the Year.

Lord Voldermort would make an excellent risk manager because when he identifies a risk, he assesses it and treats it immediately.

In the post Trevor comes up with four reasons why Voldemort makes and excellent risk manager. That said, I’m not sure I would want Voldemort as my own risk manager.

In Reputation Risk: Is Delta Airlines the Mel Gibson of Aviation he looks at some technically correct but perhaps morally questionable practices at Delta Airlines:

When Delta Airlines took over Northwest Airlines and their Detroit hub, they added Saudi Arabian Airlines to its SkyTeam Alliance of partner airlines. As a result of Saudi’s discriminatory policies, Delta will ban Jews and holders of Israeli passports from boarding flights to the Kingdom.

After this story came out, Delta of course had to defend itself by blogging: “We, like all international airlines, are required to comply with all applicable laws governing entry into every country we serve.”

I for one would like to know how Mel Gibson fits into this. What did I miss?

In The risk of driving: juice boxes and Howard Stern he pokes a bit fun at the ban of texting or phoning while driving, citing other distractions that may be far likely to cause a crash:

But after the phone risk is addressed, I think parents are still equally distracted by crying babies, infant siblings fighting in the back seats and the dreaded right-arm-reach-around to retrieve a juice box that recently fell that drips its red punch all over the beige floor mats when you squeeze it too hard.

As someone whose baby daughter was born 7 weeks ago I can only attest to that. Besides, holding and attempting to soothe a crying (read: raging) baby certainly adds to the risk of “crashing” something at home as well.

In Freshly ground typo risk he recalls the story of a “minor” typo in a cooking book:

An Australian publisher is reprinting 7,000 cookbooks over a recipe for pasta with “salt and freshly ground black people.”

Penguin Group Australia’s head of publishing, Bob Sessions, acknowledged the proofreader for the Pasta Bible should have picked up the error, but called it nothing more than a “silly mistake.”

Not sure how “silly” this is, but here in Norway the most famous brand for spices and herbs since 1952 was actually named “Black Boy” up until last fall, when they decided that while an established brand, it is perhaps not the best name for a brand these days. As I remember from my childhood, even the packaging featured the picture of a black boy, as can be seen in this article from a Norwegian newspaper who wrote about the name change. That said, their homepage URL is still blackboy.no.

Enterprise Risk Management

Trevor has a section devoted to the topic of enterprise risk mangement or ERM, where he lists 10 proofs of value of ERM, highlighting that while risk management is often seen as a mere expense, it does have a value. Interestingly, “resilience”, I topic I care about a lot was recently added as #10:

“While ERM is not a panacea for all the turmoil experienced in the markets in recent years, robust engagement by the board in enterprise risk oversight strengthens an organization’s resilience to significant risk exposures.” – COSO

I agree. Risk management and resilience definitely go hand in hand.

Conclusion

If you want to read about risk management in a fun and entertaining way, riskczar.com should be on your reading list. He’s been blogging since 2005, although regular posts first started in 2009, so there’s bunch of humorous posts for you to sift through.

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The Resilient Organization

What does it mean to be a resilient organization? That is the topic of  The Resilient Organization, written by Liisa Välikangas and subtitled How Adaptive Cultures Thrive Even when Strategy Fails. Here, resilience is more than just the ability to meet adversity; resilience as Välikangas sees it, is an essential element of a company’s competitive advantage, consisting of innovation, design or structure, adaptability and strength. Blending academic research and managerial insights this book provides a different look at resilience from a perspective that is quite different from the usual definition of resilience as a mostly operational attribute.

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Managing supply chain risk

In September and October 2009 the Economist Intelligence Unit surveyed 500 company executives with responsibility for risk management, and selected from companies across Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe, in order to understand how companies are being affected by supply-chain risk, and how they are responding to it. While colored by the them still lingering recession, and perhaps already as old as the proverbial water under the bridge,  the report titled Managing supply chain risk for reward nonetheless paints a good picture of what supply chain risks these executives think thought are were the most pressing issues in their industry. This post will highlight some of the findings from the report, even though things may have changed in the meantime…

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Retail SCM Summit 2011

China. Perhaps the biggest arena for future development in logistics and supply chain management? It could be, because China is a rising economic powerhouse and on its way to become the world’s second largest consumer market after the United States. This means that domestic supply chains will be as if not even more important to China than international supply chains. With the government putting high priority on boosting domestic consumption, Chinese retailers need to understand and be able to cater to the increasingly sophisticated Chinese consumer. This is the backdrop for the Retail Supply Chain Management Summit 2011, hosted by the Global Leaders Institute in Shanghai, China on December 6 & 7, 2011, with the support of Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and China Logistics Association (CLA).

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