The other day I got an email from Jan Bertrand, a Master student at the University of Technology Hamburg-Harburg, Germany, who is working on comparing  tools for quantifying risks in supply networks. The reason for disruptions in supply networks is often due to a causal sequence of failure events. Therefore the causal relations of risks are modelled with a Bayesian network (Causal Network). Bertrand has established a website with a graphical model that visualizes the causal connection between risks and in an uncertain environment.

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